"The papers said, These are the worst of times. I do believe it's true. When people lock their doors, and hide inside. Rumor has it it's the end of Paradise" ~ Dennis DeYoungMillions of people across this country lock all the locks on all the doors and windows in their houses. Even if they are home. Not just when they go to sleep or when they are gone. All the time. I think this is excessive, and sometimes I think,
"You know--if the house ever catches fire, you could burn to death trying to unlock all these locks in your panic to get out."It's not obsessive or overly paranoid. It is cautious. There is nothing wrong with being cautious. It's always better to be safe than sorry.
I will admit to having more of a fear of fire than an act of random violence.
However, I have been thinking about the odds of any type of violent crime ever happening to us.
I think the chances of our family being a victim of some random violent crime are almost nil. I think the chances of
anyone being a victim of a violent crime
anytime in their lifetime to be very minimal at the most.
Of course, there are locations throughout our country in which the chances are greater, but on the average, I believe violent crime is no where near as prevalent as we are led to believe.
And who leads us to believe we are living on borrowed time?Well, of course, the media does. The newspapers and television newscasts and radio news and magazines all tell us horror stories about violent crimes that happen on a daily basis. We cannot open a newspaper without seeing, on the front page and above the fold, as they say, some story about a murder or a rape or horrendous battery, usually right in our city or county. Violent crimes most often are the lead story in any given newscast.
Fictional movies and television shows exaggerate the problem. Oftentimes sensational movies and television shows re-create, for the viewers amusement, true stories of real crimes perpetrated on innocent victims. They are usually very liberal with their
"poetic license", and we as a people react with the grim realization that
"It could happen here." In fact, often the movie trailers intone those very ominous words.
"Be afraid. Be very afraid, This could happen to you."
Movies and television shows are part of the formidable beast we call media in this country.
It has the impact it is intended. It scares us into locking our doors, and keeping an eye out for anything suspicious.
The media has helped to create a
climate of fear in this country. The media and
actual random acts of violence.
But really. How often do violent crimes really happen randomly to innocent people? Do we really need to be so afraid? I am 56 years old. When I was about 17, I was unsuspectingly attacked by a neighborhood tough just because he thought I would be easy to beat up. He tried, but he just wasn't as tough as he wanted everyone to think he was. That was the first and last time I have ever been the victim of a violent crime. But it wasn't random, and it wasn't violent enough to count as a violent crime. I mean, I wasn't even injured. Not even an abrasion. So, even if we count that incident as a random violent crime, one incident in fifty-six years doesn't make a dent in crime statistics.
I've been in fights as a teen, (and I never lost one, I might add) but schoolyard fights don't count as a random violent crime statistic, either.
So, let's expand our sampling, shall we?
The most recent study I have found came from 2004 and states,
"In 2004 America's crime rate is roughly the same as in 1970, with the homicide rate being at its lowest level since 1965. Overall, the national crime rate was 3982 crimes per 100,000 residents..."
Note that this study includes random violent crimes perpetrated on innocent victims not known by the perpetrator along with non-random crimes committed by family members, friends and known enemies of the victims. Also note that this particular study doesn't differentiate between random violent crimes and run-of-the-mill everyday non-violent crimes. It simply refers to
all crime.
But let's analyze these statistics and see if we are all indeed in imminent danger of being randomly, viciously attacked.
3982 crimes per 100,000 residents is approximately
3.98 % of the entire population of the United States. Go ahead and round it off to
4% to make it easier. Now remember, that this is a sampling that includes
all crimes, you know, like shoplifting, drug possession, extortion, all types of white collar crimes, etc.
And that also includes crimes committed by people the victim knows, with a specific motive. Crimes that cannot be classified as random, and/or committed against unsuspecting innocent victims.
So now, the incidence of random acts of violence decreases significantly.
Wait a minute. Does that sound right to you?
If that is true, in a city the size of say--
Topeka, Kansas--one might find about 5 crimes committed
per year.
"Oh", you must be saying,
"Those statistics only reflect reported crimes." And you would be right! As one of my readers (who never comments) pointed out, victims of rape, spousal abuse, and violent crimes committed in economically disadvantaged urban areas
(or ghettos, if you will) go largely unreported. I read a CBS news report that stated
49% of all
sexual crimes go unreported. But, just to show how confused CBS is, the headline on that report read
"Over half of Violent crimes go unreported," a statistic not found in the article.
(Uh--CBS--I hate to tell you this, but, 49% is not over half)So. Assuming that half of all crimes go unreported, that would mean that in Topeka, Kansas, there would have been 10 crimes committed in 2004. That's
all crimes, not only violent crimes.
That can't be accurate, can it? Of course it isn't.
Our sample city, Topeka, Kansas, while relatively small in comparison to most U.S. cities with a population of over 100,000, is still an urban area. It has more violent crime than cities or counties of over 100,000 with predominately suburban residents. For instance, I once lived in Johnson County, Kansas. Same state as Topeka, but Johnson County is much more suburban than Topeka. Johnson County, overall, has over double the population of Topeka, but much less violent crime.
My point is, it evens out. Lumping cities and counties with low and suburban (or both) populations together with overpopulated urban areas the 4-10% statistic may very well be accurate.
Conclusion? Incidents of random violent crimes are not nearly as likely to happen to you as media sources would have you believe. In all likelihood, you could literally leave your doors and windows unlocked and sleep peacefully in your house for the rest of your natural life without being victimized even once by a random violent crime.
That doesn't mean you should be foolhardy. Go ahead and lock your doors. By doing so, you decrease the chances, however slim, of a crime being perpetrated against you or your family.
Now, we are left to question,
"Why?" Why does the media continue to terrorize the people in this way?
Well, it's the old adage,
"If it bleeds, it leads". Comforting news simply doesn't sell. But is that the only reason they want to keep us afraid to leave our houses?
Could it be that they realize what kind of power the pen wields, and are using it to control the people? Could it be that they know as long as we are afraid to venture beyond our comfort zones we won't drive them from their positions of power? Positions from where they dictate our every move?
Is it something more insidious, or is it just human nature to blow every threat to our personal safety out of proportion?
Maybe there is no motive other than their projection of their
own fears upon the rest of us.
Maybe it's because our human nature, with it's inherent sense of survival, creates a protective bubble around us, even when few threats exist.
Do you feel manipulated?Taking into consideration our analysis of the crime statistics, are you still frightened?
One other thing:
Doesn't living in fear lessen our quality of life? How much more rewarding and abundant could our lives be if we freed ourselves from the shackles of unwarranted fear?
Perhaps it's time we free ourselves and begin to
rage against the machine that is media.