Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Patiently Waiting For November



"The word 'hope' comes up with Obama as often today as it did during his campaign, just in a different context." ~ John Hawkins

My wife and I have been considering a move to the Midwest.

The idea first started from a leisurely search on the internet, in which my curiosity about the value of our house in today's real estate market taught me that real estate prices in my hometown of Wichita are less than half that of similar properties here in the Fredericksburg area.

We learned houses there that are even larger and better than ours are selling for less than half what ours is worth. Initially, it seemed we could sell this house and buy one in the Wichita area for cash and have enough money left over to literally live comfortably for at least a year while I search for a job.

So, we had a real estate man visit our house to do an assessment of it's value, and give recommendations for enhancing it's saleability.

The results were disappointing. Real estate values in our area have plummeted in the last few years.

Curiously, that happened about the same time the Democrats took over Congress.

I blame them and Obama.

It seems we will have to wait until the real estate market improves before putting our house on the market. It is a buyers market right now, not a sellers market.

Of course, I knew that beforehand. I'm not that stupid. I just didn't know how bad it was.

I told my wife we should wait until November when the Republicans re-take the Congress and, consequently, the market improves.

Some might say it will take quite a bit longer for the market to improve even if the Republicans immediately begin to repair the damage done to the economy by the Obama regime's reckless economic policies, but I have my own theory.

Now, I'm far from an economic expert, so my theory may be dead wrong. And, if I'm wrong, I know some economic experts (such as resident Liberal, Jim) will no doubt enumerate the many reasons why. But regardless, here it is:

The stock market is driven by speculation. Economic experts, whose entire existence depends on their ability to analyze and predict the ups and downs of the economy, stake their jobs and their reputations on educated guesses about what the stock market will do tomorrow.

This is called speculation.

The real estate market is influenced by the stock market exactly the same way as all other aspects of the economy. If the stock market is down, the real estate market follows suit. The same applies if the stock market goes up.

The fluctuations of the stock market, and by extension, the real estate market, are directly influenced by the movers and shakers in the industry, through the process of speculation.

When the Republicans win the majority in November, I'm thinking the experts in the industry will speculate (and rightly so) that the Republicans will begin to reverse the failed economic policies of the Obama administration and the stock market will immediately jump up several notches on whatever scale the market is measured.

In the same way it dropped immediately after the Democrats took over as the majority party in 2006.

Coincidence? I think not.

The stock market will improve, and with it, the real estate market.

Thus, come this November, I'm hoping I'm correct and real estate prices will improve enough that the move we're considering will be worth the wait.

I'm waiting for November.

8 comments:

Trader Rick said...

But Mark, a rising tide lifts ALL boats..remember, in Real Estate, its:

LOCATION,LOCATION,LOCATION.

If you have to move without a job, why not move down here to PARADISE???

GO GATUH!!!


ps: Charlie Rangel, don't whine about your "dignity" -- That ship sailed long ago...

Mark said...

True, Rick, and I might do that, except, I have family in Wichita, and being in Florida is as far from my family as here.

Lone Ranger said...

I have to confess, I don't understand all the angst about the housing market and being upside down or underwater or whatever they call it. Although a house is worth less, the mortgage payments remain the same. And it's the same house you considered a home before the value went down. If anything, the taxes go down with the value of the house. And it's just as much your home. I can understand needing to leave, since I've moved more times than I can count in my lifetime, but I can't understand the people who walk away from a house just because it's worth less than they paid for it.

Anyone care to educamate me?

Mark said...

Can't help you here, LR. I didn't pay a cent for this house, and neither did my wife. Her parents bought it. She inherited it.

It's 100% profit for us, but we would like to get a bigger and better house and pay less than this one brings.

Trader Rick said...

The little lot a house sits on doesn't hold the sentimental value it once did. 4 or 5 generations ago, the land meant something. We were all farmers. you were born on the land.You were married on it, worked it. You died on the land. The old homeplace is no longer. In our mobile society, we move around so much, that it doesn't matter to us any more. Grampaw's farm is a thing of the past. We grew up and moved away. Too bad.

timothymatters said...

You know, you could move to Jackson, TN and go to church at Grace Presbyterian Church, and then you would be almost to Wichita, and still close enough to Florida to go there for vacation. :)

Always On Watch said...

Mark,
I hope that you're right that the real-estate market will improve in the GOP sweeps the November elections.

Myself, I'm waiting for yet one more boom here in Northern Virginia so that I can sell my property at a decent price. Now that Mr. AOW cannot do the yard work, I really need a place with less land.

Good luck to you with your selling and getting to move.

Z said...

I swear, I'm thinking of taking 2 sleeping pills on election night; I literally don't know how I'll be able to ride it through watching tv and chewing my fingernails to the quick.

I SO hope things go our way and that things pick up for you, Mark...Mr. Z and I'd talked about that, too "Sell our place and pay cash and live of off the difference!" but I won't do that alone now..family's here, I was born and raised here, etc.....all the best to you and yours.