Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Patiently Waiting For November
"The word 'hope' comes up with Obama as often today as it did during his campaign, just in a different context." ~ John Hawkins
My wife and I have been considering a move to the Midwest.
The idea first started from a leisurely search on the internet, in which my curiosity about the value of our house in today's real estate market taught me that real estate prices in my hometown of Wichita are less than half that of similar properties here in the Fredericksburg area.
We learned houses there that are even larger and better than ours are selling for less than half what ours is worth. Initially, it seemed we could sell this house and buy one in the Wichita area for cash and have enough money left over to literally live comfortably for at least a year while I search for a job.
So, we had a real estate man visit our house to do an assessment of it's value, and give recommendations for enhancing it's saleability.
The results were disappointing. Real estate values in our area have plummeted in the last few years.
Curiously, that happened about the same time the Democrats took over Congress.
I blame them and Obama.
It seems we will have to wait until the real estate market improves before putting our house on the market. It is a buyers market right now, not a sellers market.
Of course, I knew that beforehand. I'm not that stupid. I just didn't know how bad it was.
I told my wife we should wait until November when the Republicans re-take the Congress and, consequently, the market improves.
Some might say it will take quite a bit longer for the market to improve even if the Republicans immediately begin to repair the damage done to the economy by the Obama regime's reckless economic policies, but I have my own theory.
Now, I'm far from an economic expert, so my theory may be dead wrong. And, if I'm wrong, I know some economic experts (such as resident Liberal, Jim) will no doubt enumerate the many reasons why. But regardless, here it is:
The stock market is driven by speculation. Economic experts, whose entire existence depends on their ability to analyze and predict the ups and downs of the economy, stake their jobs and their reputations on educated guesses about what the stock market will do tomorrow.
This is called speculation.
The real estate market is influenced by the stock market exactly the same way as all other aspects of the economy. If the stock market is down, the real estate market follows suit. The same applies if the stock market goes up.
The fluctuations of the stock market, and by extension, the real estate market, are directly influenced by the movers and shakers in the industry, through the process of speculation.
When the Republicans win the majority in November, I'm thinking the experts in the industry will speculate (and rightly so) that the Republicans will begin to reverse the failed economic policies of the Obama administration and the stock market will immediately jump up several notches on whatever scale the market is measured.
In the same way it dropped immediately after the Democrats took over as the majority party in 2006.
Coincidence? I think not.
The stock market will improve, and with it, the real estate market.
Thus, come this November, I'm hoping I'm correct and real estate prices will improve enough that the move we're considering will be worth the wait.
I'm waiting for November.