Eligibility Rules Make Polls Misleading

"The moment we begin to fear the opinions of others and hesitate to tell the truth that is in us, and from motives of policy are silent when we should speak, the divine floods of light and life no longer flow into our souls." ~ Elizabeth Cady Stanton

Over at Lone Ranger's blog, he points out that Nobama might be in trouble even though the polls show Nobama leading McCain. He mentioned the Bradley effect, which, according to Wikipedia, "refers to a frequently observed discrepancy between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in American political campaigns when a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other... the Bradley effect refers to a tendency on the part of white voters to tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a Black candidate, when, on election day, they vote for his/her white opponent.

One theory for the Bradley effect is that some white voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they will open themselves to criticism. This effect is similar to people refusing to discuss voting choice at all. If you state you are undecided, you can avoid being forced into a political discussion with someone highly partisan. The reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election exit polls as well. The race of the pollster conducting the interview may be a factor into voters' answers. Some pollsters believe that they do not receive deliberately false answers from white voters. The Bradley effect, these pollsters believe, is caused by pollsters' failure to account for general political leanings among voters who are undecided between Democrats and Republicans."

I understand how the Bradley effect can skew poll numbers. I, myself, am reluctant to make the point that polls may be skewed because of the number of blacks polled and say they support Nobama, when there is a sizable percentage of blacks who statistically are not allowed to vote due to previous felony convictions.

Here are some facts to consider:

Polls indicate over 92% of blacks support Barack Hussein Nobama for President.

Anyone who has ever been convicted of a felony in this country is ineligible to vote.

According to Bureau of Justice statistics, at midyear 2007, "Blacks were almost three times more likely than Hispanics and five times more likely than whites to be in jail."

There is no way to make that point without sounding racist, even though there is sound statistical evidence that makes one ask these questions:

Are blacks who are being polled being asked if they are eligible to vote? If they poll ineligible voters, and eligible voters who won't vote, it would significantly change the results of the poll numbers, wouldn't it?.

I think these are important questions.

The other day, while exiting Walmart, I saw several young black men next to the exit with voter registration forms stopping people and urging them to register to vote.

This is a worthy thing to do. Except for one thing:

They were only approaching blacks.

I stood and watched for some time and not one time did they approach me, nor did they approach any other white person. There is no doubt they are counting on the fact that blacks overwhelmingly favor Barack Hussein Nobama for President. The reasoning is sound. The more blacks they get to register, the more votes for Nobama. They don't even have to say, "Vote for Obama". They know the numbers are in their favor.

But, will the push to register more black voters make a difference? How many of the registrations will eventually be invalidated because of past felony convictions?

If one takes the same polls that indicate Nobama is leading by 9-10%, and throw out nearly 13 percent of the results because black men nationwide have lost the right to vote, one gets a totally different finding.

I think McCain has more of a chance than we are being led to believe.